Formerly the “Property Planner, Buyer and Professor” podcast
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This week, Mike and Cate dive into the March 2025 property data and what it reveals about national and regional market conditions. With Dave away on holiday, the duo tackle a rich data set full of fascinating insights—from Darwin’s sudden surge to long-term trends in housing yields, and the evolving state of rental markets across Australia.
Market Overview: March 2025 Snapshot
- National growth recorded a modest +0.4% in median dwelling values, but that headline number hides the more interesting movements beneath the surface.
- Darwin took the spotlight, delivering +1.0% growth for the month, a striking turnaround after prolonged underperformance. Cate teases an upcoming episode focused exclusively on Darwin.
- Adelaide continues to outperform—recording +11% YoY and showing strong resilience, thanks to a mix of housing demand, economic confidence, and lifestyle factors.
- Hobart was the only capital in decline, down nearly -0.5%, underscoring its volatility and the limitations of a smaller, more seasonal market.
Source: CoreLogic
Segmentation Matters: All Dwellings vs Houses
Cate unpacks the critical difference between median dwelling values and house-specific data:
- Melbourne’s unit-heavy composition is skewing broader averages downward, masking stronger house price performance.
- For example, while Melbourne’s overall dwelling value is lower than Adelaide’s, median house prices tell a different story.
Source: CoreLogic
Ten-Year Trends: Darwin vs Hobart
- Darwin’s market has underwhelmed over the past decade, showing -1.0% growth, with its last peak in May 2014—raising questions about patience and risk for investors banking on “mean reversion.”
- Hobart, in contrast, has delivered +86.7% growth over the last ten years, ranking it third nationwide despite its current softness.
Source: CoreLogic
Regional Markets: Mining Towns and COVID Echoes
- Cate and Mike analyse standout regional performers like Townsville, Gladstone, and Central Highlands (QLD).
- Central Highlands’ +21.8% growth raises sustainability concerns due to its heavy reliance on mining.
- Regional Victoria has outperformed Melbourne in recent years:
- Cate attributes this to COVID-driven migration, increased affordability, and lifestyle changes, despite the post-COVID hangover.
Rents & Yields: A Return to Normal?
- Rental growth has cooled significantly, with most capital cities now within the target inflation band.
- Cate points to:
- Increased household formation
- Slower overseas migration
- And regional disparities—Darwin and regional WA/NT still deliver positive gross yields, albeit with associated risk.
- Gross yields:
- National: 3.7%
- Regional: 4.4%
- Some NT and WA markets: 6%+
Source: CoreLogic / ABS
Listings: Signs of Imbalance in Darwin?
- Darwin’s total listings are down 28.6% YoY, while old listings (180+ days) have dropped 39.1%, suggesting heightened demand and fast buyer activity—even for less desirable stock.
- Mike draws a parallel to Perth’s 2023-2024 boom, wondering if Darwin is following a similar trajectory.
Source: SQM Research
Unemployment & the Broader Economy
- Unemployment remains tight at 4%, suggesting underlying labour market strength.
- Mike and Cate discuss what this means for housing demand and how it feeds into the RBA’s policy decisions.
Source: ABS
Global Impacts: Trump’s Tariffs and RBA’s Dilemma
- Cate brings in Governor Bullock’s recent remarks, highlighting the RBA’s watchful stance on:
- The global inflationary risks of Trump’s proposed tariffs
- The delicate balance between growth, inflation, and interest rate responses
- Mike notes Goldman Sachs’ recession forecast for the US now sits at 35%, emphasizing the interconnected nature of global trade and domestic property markets.
Resources
The Property Planner’s Monthly Market Update
And if you’ve enjoyed this show, take a listen to these eps:
- 19 TIME IN the market v TIMING the market
- 21 Why price point should determine location and strategy
- 129 What is contrarian investing and how can you make it work for you?
- 158 How interest rate cycles have impacted the property market since 1990 when the RBA first started targeting the cash rate and some predictions on what will happen this time
- 164 Analysing regional locations – What investment principles can be gleaned from the highest performing regions in each state? Comparing capital city vs regional performance from 2003 – before and after covid
