Formerly the “Property Planner, Buyer and Professor” podcast
Listen and subscribe
Android 
Show notes
Market Overview: April 2025 Snapshot
Nationally, the gains could be described as “soft”, but for Darwin and Hobart, things are anything but soft. With a second consecutive strong month, Darwin is once again the star of the show.
Dave considers that Darwin is in the early stages of a bull run based on a few metrics. Time on market, sales volumes, vacancy rates, rental movement, and new listings and are all combining to suggest that Darwin’s demand level has more in store.
Cate points out that the combined regions are still doing a lot of heavy lifting though. Investor price points and lighter negative cashflow is a likely reason for regional performance, combined with intra-state migration. Retirees and the accepted phenomenon of work-from-home are also contributors to this trend, as are decentralised businesses.
Source: CoreLogic
Quartile Performance
Quartile performance across the cities also tells us an interesting story. Typically, cities in recovery show an uptick in higher quartile performance, yet as Cate points out, credit can play havoc with this trend.
Melbourne’s lower quartile is still lower, but investor activity could explain this. Investors tend to circle lower price points and Melbourne represents value when contrasted against other states. The higher rental yield has also been compelling for a few investors.
Are buyers sitting on their hands in Canberra? The Trio chat about the impact of elections on buyer behaviours, particularly in cities with high numbers of public servants.
What does this segmented data suggest for our hot cities of 2024, (Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide)? Tune in to find out.
Source: CoreLogic
Rents
Rents… good news for renters? Many of our capital city markets have experienced a softening in asking rents for houses. Adelaide, Perth, Darwin and Hobart remain the strongest, but we are far from the peak conditions over thee past four years. Household formation rates have impacted rental growth, as have first home buyer initiatives, migration levels and confidence around employment.
As Dave points out though, national rental growth is still above target inflation, so it’s not all good news for renters.
Sales data for Darwin at 35.5% increase over the past twelve months overshadows every other city. Combined with new listings, (which have contracted in our northernmost capital), the supply/demand balance supports Darwin’s sheer strength at present.
Source: CoreLogic
Listings
Total listings data is slightly under the past five year average, but we do need to take into account the impact of Easter, ANZAC Day and the federal election.
Old listings, current listings and new listings tell a great story, particularly for Canberra. The fear of public service cuts would have no doubt dampened the sentiment for Canberran purchasers.
Source: SQM Research
Consumer Sentiment
May 2025’s Westpac consumer sentiment indices are surprisingly stable, however some of the metrics suggest a degree of pessimism. Buyers are optimistic about the chances of an interest rate cut, yet sentiment is still relatively anaemic.
Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute
What’s next for the property market?
Dave shares his updated predictions for some of our capital cities as he talks our listeners through some of the combined leading indicators he’s combined for a clearer picture.
Cate sheds light on settlement periods and the impact a long settlement can have on data reporting. Many upgraders are currently looking to buy on long settlements in order to give themselves ample time to sell.
Lastly, Mike decides to introduce a guessing game for the Trio. “Which capital cities will star next month?”
Let’s see who’s predictions land closest to the pin next month!
Resources
And if you’ve enjoyed this show, take a listen to these eps:
- 19 TIME IN the market v TIMING the market
- 21 Why price point should determine location and strategy
- 129 What is contrarian investing and how can you make it work for you?
- 158 How interest rate cycles have impacted the property market since 1990 when the RBA first started targeting the cash rate and some predictions on what will happen this time
- 164 Analysing regional locations – What investment principles can be gleaned from the highest performing regions in each state? Comparing capital city vs regional performance from 2003 – before and after covid
