Welcome to the Property Planner’s Monthly Market Update, your comprehensive resource for the latest insights and trends in the real estate and economic landscape!
Stay informed and ahead of the curve with our expert analysis, helping you make well-informed decisions in the ever-evolving property market.
Price Growth Across All Capitals
Every capital city recorded solid price growth in May, with most seeing an acceleration in their rate of growth compared to April.
This suggests that the market may be heating up in response to the second interest rate cut delivered by the RBA, with the markets betting that a third rate reduction at the start of July is a monty.
A range of indicators are now flashing green, suggesting we may be entering a new phase of property price acceleration across all capital cities.
Source: Cotality
Conflicting Data Sources
CoreLogic (now “Cotality”) and PropTrack (realestate.com.au) presented very different views this month.
PropTrack reported Melbourne as the top-performing capital, with prices rising 0.8% in May.
This marks the second time this year it has ranked Melbourne as the strongest market.
Whereas CoreLogic showed Darwin leading with 1.6% growth, while PropTrack recorded just 0.3% for Darwin.
The discrepancy highlights the importance of understanding each platform’s methodology, timing, and data sources, as well as the value of cross-referencing multiple data sets before making any purchasing decisions.
Off-market activity may be just one factor skewing the results in Darwin for PropTrack.
Source: PropTrack
Melbourne Property Posts the Highest Gains of All Capital Cities in May According to the Realestate.com.au Index
Following a brief April slowdown (impacted by Easter, Anzac Day, and the early May federal election all occurring in close succession), Melbourne’s property market has roared back to life and is building strong momentum.
The Realestate.com.au property index, PropTrack, notes that Melbourne home prices had the highest monthly gain across all Australian capital cities in May at 0.79% and its highest gain this year.
While the median price on this index remains 2.85% below the previous peak, opportunities are still available, but this won’t last.
The upward trend since February signals a genuine recovery is underway.
📊 Monthly Price Growth – PropTrack Data
🔹 January: -0.30%
🔹 February: +0.67%
🔹 March: +0.50%
🔹 April: +0.25%
🔹 May: +0.79%
Click here for more detailed insights into the data behind Melbourne’s market recovery.
Source: PropTrack
Darwin’s Property Market Takes Flight
Darwin led the market in Cotality’s data (+1.6% MoM), while PropTrack reported a more modest gain of 0.3%.
In Darwin, supply is tightening rapidly, with “old listings” (properties on the market for 180 days or more) down 46% year-on-year.
Investors appear to be snapping up nearly everything on the market, including properties that had previously struggled to sell.
Rents are also increasing despite Darwin already offering the highest gross rental yield of all capital cities at 6.6%, indicating strong investor and tenant demand.
All indicators point to Darwin being a very frothy market already, even though it remains early in its current price run.
We continue to expect double-digit growth for Darwin, potentially exceeding 20%, though it remains a high-risk market, evidenced by the fact that dwelling values are still below their 2014 peak, but that’s unlikely to remain the case for much longer.
Click here for more insights on Darwin.
Source: Cotality (formerly CoreLogic)
Brisbane Hits $1M Milestone as Market Momentum Builds
Brisbane’s property market continues its upward trajectory, with May 2025 recording a 0.6% increase in dwelling values, marking the strongest monthly growth for the city so far this year, according to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic).
Brisbane has officially joined Sydney in the $1M+ club, with its median house value now tipping over the milestone at $1,000,422.
Falling interest rates are reigniting price growth across all capital cities, but over the next one to three years, some markets are poised to outperform the rest.
Is this just the beginning of Brisbane’s next property run or will affordability pressures continue to bite, causing more sustainable growth?
Source: Cotality (formerly CoreLogic)
Adelaide Remains Strong, but Watch for Cooling
Adelaide recorded 11% annual growth (PropTrack), the highest of all capitals over the last 12 months.
Median house prices reached $882,000 in Adelaide, however a 16.5% jump in old listings in May could be an early indicator of demand softening.
The Trio, along with local expert Peter the ‘Property Professor’ Koulizos, caution that Adelaide’s recent surge may be outpacing its economic fundamentals, suggesting the market could be nearing a turning point.
Investors should be mindful that most markets overshoot on the way up, which means a correction period tends to follow.
Sydney Approaches Previous Price Peak
Sydney is now just 0.3% below its last market peak in September 2024.
While not moving as dramatically as some other cities, Sydney clocked in a 0.5% increase over May (Core Logic/Cotality), it remains a solid performer with consistent monthly gains and balanced demand.
Source: Cotality
Canberra Under Pressure
A 58% increase in old listings year-on-year points to a buildup of unsold stock and weaker buyer activity.
Will this turn around now that the federal election is won and done, bringing stability to a city where two out of three people work in the public service?
Despite being one of the softer markets right now, Canberra still recorded modest growth of 0.4% in both April and May, according to Cotality, highlighting how falling interest rates are lifting prices across the board.
Hobart with the Most to Gain
Hobart remains the city the furthest below it’s previous peak (-10.5%) in May 2022.
Rental demand has been inconsistent in Hobart, especially for units, with unit rents down 5.7% over the four weeks ending 28th of May according to SQM Research.
A slight drop in distressed listings among other data points suggests the market may be bottoming out, though Hobart’s data can be less reliable given the smaller population and lower volume of transactions.
Source: Cotality
Is Perth’s Property Market Gearing Up for a Second Run?
Perth’s market continues to build momentum, posting 0.7% growth in May, up from 0.4% in April and just 0.2% in March, according to CoreLogic (now Cotality)
This was the second-highest increase among all capital cities.
However, Perth was the only capital to record a monthly rise in new listings, up 11%, which may indicate that vendors are starting to capitalise on recent price growth by selling.
This could be a sign of a maturing market.
Will falling interest rates provide a second wind for Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide, where property values have shot the lights out over the past two to three years?
Source: Cotality (formerly CoreLogic)
Unit Rents are Accelerating
National rental growth eased slightly (0.4% in May, down from 0.6%), but unit rents are accelerating faster than houses.
The reasons unit rents are outpacing those of houses likely include:
- Affordability pressures, with house rents more expensive than units.
- Cost-of-living constraints pushing more people toward units
- Urban lifestyle preferences among younger professionals wanting to live closer to the city
- Tighter unit supply driven by a lack of new apartment construction
Source: Cotality
Inflation Creeps Higher – But Markets Are Still Betting on a Rate Cut
The latest inflation figures from the ABS, released on May 28, show that Australia’s 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗖𝗣𝗜 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝘁 𝟮.𝟰%, consistent with the previous month.
However, underlying measures saw slight upticks:
𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻 (the RBA’s go-to measure) edged up to 𝟮.𝟴% (from 2.7%)
𝗖𝗣𝗜 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗹𝘂𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗺𝘀/𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗹 also ticked up to 𝟮.𝟴% (from 2.6%)
These figures, while still within the RBA’s 2–3% target range, indicate persistent inflationary pressures.
𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝘁 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝟴𝘁𝗵 𝗥𝗕𝗔 𝗺𝗲𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗳𝗹𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲:
May 27: 79% chance of a rate cut
May 29 (post-inflation data): dropped to 66%
June 6: rebounded to 97%
The next inflation update, due on 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟱, will be pivotal in shaping the RBA’s decision.
Source: ABS
Investor Activity on the Rise
Investor lending rose 8.8% year-on-year, outpacing first-home buyers and upgraders.
Falling interest rates are attracting investors back into the market, especially in markets such as Darwin and Melbourne, that have underperformed for an extended period.
Both locations also offer historically attractive rental yields.
Investors are also keen to get in before the government throws open the floodgates in 2026 with beefed-up incentives for first-home buyers.
This is the challenge with flagging major policy changes so far in advance.
Savvy investors move early and we’re already seeing that play out on the ground.
Source: ABS
Consumer Confidence in Property Buying and Price Expectations Growing
Consumer sentiment is gradually improving.
The “time to buy a dwelling” index rose to 93.3, the highest reading for almost four years, since September 2021.
While expectations for house prices jumped from 155 to 166, indicating growing confidence that values will rise.
Household Savings on the Rise
The household savings ratio lifted from 2.7 this time a year ago to 5.2, as income growth outpaced spending.
Households continue to tighten their belts, but they’re also benefiting from wage growth that has kept pace with inflation over the past one to two years and is now outpacing it, with inflation falling back below 3%
This could support further optimism among households, aided by the slowing inflationary environment.
Source: Trading Economics/ABS
Low Level of Listings Remains
Old listings are trending down in most cities, indicating demand is starting to outstrip supply which is often a harbinger of price growth.
New listings remain constrained nationally, with Perth being the only capital to record a monthly increase in listings, as investors decide to cash in their profits.
For many, those profits have been a decade in the making, following years of stagnant growth in Perth’s property market.
Reach Out to Us
If you would like to discuss your next steps, property plans, and mortgage strategy, get in touch with us today. Our team of experts is here to guide you through the complexities of the market and help you achieve your property goals.