Welcome to the Property Planner’s Monthly Market Update, your comprehensive resource for the latest insights and trends in the real estate and economic landscape!
Stay informed and ahead of the curve with our expert analysis, helping you make well-informed decisions in the ever-evolving property market.
Latest Inflation Data Paves the Way for RBA Rate Cut
The ABS just released the Q2 (April–June) inflation data yesterday (30th July), and it provided the numbers the RBA wanted to see before reducing rates again.
Headline inflation has eased to 2.1%, down from 2.4% last quarter — perfectly in line with the RBA’s forecast.
“Trimmed mean” inflation (the RBA’s preferred measure) also dropped from 2.9% to 2.7%, just slightly above the RBA’s expected 2.6%.
What does this mean?
Markets are now pricing in a 100% chance of a 0.25% rate cut at the RBA’s August meeting and a 52% chance of an even bigger 0.50% cut!
As affordability improves, more homebuyers and investors will enter the market, creating more competition and boosting price at the back end of 2025 before momentum really takes off in 2026.
Source: ABS
Price Growth Across All Capitals
Every capital city recorded solid price growth in June, with most seeing either an acceleration or matching in their rate of growth compared to June.
The exceptions were Melbourne and Canberra that eased from June’s growth.
This suggests that the market may be heating up in response to the second interest rate cut delivered by the RBA, with the markets betting that a third rate reduction in August is a monty.
After trailing regionals for much of the past year, the combined capitals matched the regions in July with 0.6% growth each.
However, over the last three months, capitals edged ahead slightly with 1.8% growth vs regions at 1.7%.
The tide may be turning back in favour of the capitals as affordability pressures and investor interest shift focus.
Source: Cotality
Melbourne Property Market Finds Its Footing
Melbourne’s property market recovery appears to have stabilised, with most months 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝟬.𝟰% 𝘁𝗼 𝟬.𝟱% 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗙𝗲𝗯𝗿𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱, according to Cotality.
This consistent growth has positioned Melbourne as the third best performing capital city since the first rate reduction.
We think this is the beginning of a larger rebound that will play out in 2026.
🌿 Feb: +0.4%
🌿 Mar: +0.5%
🌿 Apr: +0.2%
🌿 May: +0.4%
🌿 Jun: +0.5%
🌿 Jul: +0.4%
Adding to this upward pressure, SQM reports 𝘁𝗼𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘆 𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝟰.𝟮% lower than this time last year, with 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝟯.𝟬%
This drop in supply is tightening the market and likely to drive more competition among buyers in the coming months.
With the RBA delivering its third rate cut in August and Governor Bullock signalling at least one more before year’s end, confidence is expected to climb even higher, 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗮 𝗰𝗿𝘂𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀.
Click here for more detailed insights into the data behind Melbourne’s market recovery.
Darwin’s Property Market Ramps Up the Heat
Darwin led the nation in July with a standout 2.2% surge in property values, making it the top-performing market for the month according to Cotality.
But it doesn’t stop there, it’s also leading the nation in quarterly growth (5.6%) and annual growth (8.5%), showing serious momentum.
While new listings are up 16.1% compared to this time last year, total listings have dropped 36.7%, and old listings are down a massive 50.7%
A clear sign that fresh stock is being snapped up fast by eager home buyers and investors.
With tight supply, strong demand and consistent growth, Darwin’s market is firing on all cylinders.
Click here for more insights on Darwin.
Recent Monthly Growth:
🔹 March: +1.0%
🔹 April: +1.1%
🔹 May: +1.6%
🔹 June: +1.5%
🔹 July: +2.2%
Perth’s Property Market Keeps Climbing
Momentum continues to ramp up in the west, with Perth recording +0.8% price growth in July.
This is the strongest monthly rise so far in 2025, according to Cotality, as Perth starts to get a second wind after the recent rate reductions, with expectations of more to come.
Recent Monthly Growth:
🔹 March: +0.2%
🔹 April: +0.4%
🔹 May: +0.7%
🔹 June: +0.8%
🔹 July: +0.9%
Canberra Property Bounces Back
After a slow start to 2025, Canberra’s property market is finally showing signs of life, posting solid gains month on month since April, according to Cotality.
Recent Monthly Growth:
🔹 March: +0.2%
🔹 April: +0.4%
🔹 May: +0.4%
🔹 June: +0.9%
🔹 July: +0.5%
Adelaide Property Accelerates in July
Adelaide’s property market picked up pace last month, posting 0.7% growth in July.
Total listings are up 6.5% year-on-year and old listings up 10.2%, a sign that buyer urgency may be easing slightly and vendors are seeing now as a good time to sell.
Still, increased stock on the market hasn’t slowed down overall growth, with monthly gains steadily ramping up since April, after a lull late last year and early 2025.
Recent Monthly Growth:
🔹 Apr: +0.3%
🔹 May: +0.4%
🔹 Jun: +0.5%
🔹 Jul: +0.7%
Adelaide and all capital cities continue to show resilience in a shifting market with interest rate relief likely to be a rising tide that lifts property prices across the nation.
Brisbane Remains Resilient
Brisbane continues to perform well, posting 0.7% growth in July, matching June’s growth.
Despite minor softening, quarterly growth remains solid at 2.3%
Recent Monthly Growth:
🔹 March: +0.4%
🔹 April: +0.4%
🔹 May: +0.6%
🔹 June: +0.7%
🔹 July: +0.7%
Sydney’s Growth Solidifies
Sydney continues to perform well, posting 0.6% growth in July, matching June’s growth.
Old listings are down 6.2% over the month, however up 28.3% YoY.
Recent Monthly Growth:
🔹 March: +0.3%
🔹 April: +0.2%
🔹 May: +0.5%
🔹 June: +0.6%
🔹 July: +0.6%
Hobart Picks Up Again
Following a decline in June, Hobart’s market has picked up with modest growth of 0.1% in July.
Total listings and new listings are up YoY by 1.4% and 7.9% respectively, adding further supply to this languishing market
Recent Monthly Growth:
🔹 March: -0.4%
🔹 April: +0.9%
🔹 May: +0.6%
🔹 June: -0.2%
🔹 July: +0.1%
RBA Rate Cut Boosts Homebuyer Confidence
The recent rate cut has given housing-related sentiment a strong lift.
- The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index jumped 10.5% to 97.8, a four-year high, and up 37% on last year.
- Buyer sentiment has tipped into positive territory in Victoria (101) and Western Australia (102), with WA rebounding strongly after a weak July.
- Consumers remain very bullish on property prices – the House Price Expectations Index edged up 0.9% to 164.2, its second highest level since 2013.
- Three-quarters of consumers now expect prices to rise over the next 12 months.
With the ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index now creeping towards positive territory, it signals that buyers are preparing to re-enter the market and competition is set to rise.
As we’ve been forecasting, 2026 is on track to be a standout year for property growth.
Reach Out to Us
If you would like to discuss your next steps, property plans, and mortgage strategy, get in touch with us today. Our team of experts is here to guide you through the complexities of the market and help you achieve your property goals.
