Show notes – Market Update July 2023 – Rental growth slows, will rent freezes fan the flames, exploring the office exodus & capitals thrive as regionals dive (Ep.218)

Formerly the “Property Planner, Buyer and Professor” podcast

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1. Capital vs. Regional: The Performance Battle

In this exciting episode, the Trio dive deep into the latest property trends.

Cate sparks a discussion on the thriving capital cities versus their regional counterparts.

Dave casts the spotlight on Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, and Sydney’s stunning value growth, while also revealing that despite the upturn, some major capitals still haven’t reached their last peak.

Source: CoreLogic

2. Perth: A Watchful Eye

Mike steers the conversation toward Perth’s intriguing outperformance. Dave and Cate weigh in cautiously, hinting at a potential Perth revolution.

The growth and yield combo earns Perth a spot in the ‘watch this space’ category.

3. City Escapes: The Second Home Surge

An engaging chat ensues about the urban exodus myth.

Cate debunks Mike’s assumption and sheds light on the ongoing allure of country living.

As businesses call their staff back to the office, a surprising trend emerges – the rise of second homes.

4. Listing Insights: Appraisals & Inventory

Discover how Cate’s insights from the field hint at rising listing activity, with listings agents getting quite busy with their appraisal activity. A precursor to higher listing volumes.

Mike digs deeper into the correlation between appraisals and listing volume.

Dave and Cate anticipate the Spring market and ponder improved buying conditions, highlighting October/November as prime buying months.

Listing numbers have improved in July and August, adding to the intrigue.

Source: CoreLogic

5. Rental Realities: Stock & Increases

Cate’s rental stock concerns unravel due to divorce rates and part-time city dwellers.

Dave dissects rental increase rates as the pace eases, urging caution to state governments against rent freezes.

They delve into market-specific drivers and threats that paint a diverse rental landscape.

The trio discuss the fact that growth in national rents reached 35 consecutive months in July – the longest stretch since 2013.

Source: CoreLogic

Source: CoreLogic

6. Vacancy Ventures: Numbers & Insights

The trio demystifies ‘optimal’ vacancy rates, and all agree that 2-3% signifies a healthy rental market.

A revelation emerges as Cate presents an Office Vacancy chart, shedding light on residential vs. office vacancy dynamics.

Their discussion reveals that while listings are being snapped up, buyer demand consistently outpaces seller motivation.

7. Sentiment Snapshot: A Curious Mix

Westpac’s Consumer Sentiment data leaves the Trio intrigued.

The hosts ponder slightly rising sentiment on the Time to Buy a Dwelling index while there is strong anticipation of higher house prices on the horizon.

Mike humorously attributes it to the “I wish I could, but I can’t” phenomenon.

Cate’s ‘toys’ index remains captivating, showcasing Euro-trips as the flavour of the day.

Source: Westpac Melbourne Insitutue

8. Buyer Buzz: Fresh Insights

The Trio serves up a captivating roundup: a surge in first-time buyer activity, declining dwelling approvals, receding distressed listings, and a concerning spike in personal (unsecured) lending.

Each insight paints a unique facet of the property narrative, making for a must-listen episode.

Gold Nuggets

Dave Johnston’s gold nugget: Dave talks about some of our two-speed markets, citing the Gold Coast, South-East Tasmania and Newcastle/Lake Macquarie as high performers, and he delves into some slow performers in Victoria. There really are markets within markets!

Cate Bakos’s gold nugget: Cate anticipates higher listing figures in Spring and feels that the 2023 opportunity for buyers could match late 2022’s.

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