Show notes – Market update December 2022 – Rents are still climbing, and increased net migration now poses a new threat to rental supply (Ep.188)

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In this week’s market update episode, Dave, Cate and Pete take you through:
1. Continued positive signs as home value index results show rate of decline slows
Like November data exhibited, dwelling values’ rate of decline is still slowing in all cities except Brisbane and Hobart, but our national decline is not as severe as the media would have us all believe.
As the heights of last year’s market fade away from the rolling average data set our annualised losses continue to climb.
2. Rents are still climbing in many cities, and while house asking rents have slowed somewhat, the rate of growth is still very tough on tenants. Units in almost every city are still climbing at a strong rate, particularly for Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth.
Vacancy rates remain tight, particularly in Hobart, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.
Now that net overseas migration has reached a record high, the threat to the rental market undersupply issue is amplified. These heightening asking rents correlate with the tightening vacancy rates and also the increasing rental yield figures across our various capital city and regional markets.
3. New listings are still low after a particularly quiet spring season nationally
Despite low new stock, Cate discusses the impact of this on price movement. It’s fair to say that our December price falls were somewhat insulated due to low stock levels and a healthier supply:demand ratio than feared.
4. What’s changed since our last rate increase?
Consumer confidence tells a couple of interesting stories this month. While confidence is still low, the two metrics of interest are; a) house price expectations index, and b) family finances next twelve months. 
5. External refinancing continues to climb!
Unsurprisingly, refinance activity is very strong in response to three things; increasing interest rates, hungry banks, and larger lender margins. As consumers look elsewhere for more competitive lending, banks too are taking the opportunity to market hard for new business.  The trio talk about the impact of refinancing and delve into the dreaded ‘clawback’ scenario… something every strategic mortgage broker loathes.
6. Much like the November data showed, the bond yield remains static
The three year bond yield remains sub 3.3% still; reminding us that long term sentiment is reasonably positive for our cash rate.
7. Unemployment remains low.
Pete reminds us how pleased he is for his students who are finding work more easily than past years.
8. And our gold nuggets!

Gold nuggets

Cate Bakos – The Property Buyer’s Golden nugget: Cate encourages those who are reading dire economist predictions and feeling fearful, to delve into the economist’s rationale and assumptions. Understand the variables and conditions that some of these articles are basing frightening headlines on and qualify the information you are reading.
David Johnston – The Property Planner’s Golden nugget:  Dave puts the value losses into perspective; from peak to trough across our combined capitals our value losses are single digit, and he reminds listeners that our gains in 2020 and 2021 were significant. Dave feels that 2023 is a good time to get into the market if you have a long term plan.

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