ANZ was the last of the major banks to come off the bench during the week and scrap its forecast for a pandemic-linked 10 per cent drop in house prices for 2020. Better late than never! The evidence is stark that the market has not only turned, but is firing on all cylinders and in our view has been for a while. (We first suggested the market hit an inflection point in mid-September and shortly followed with a prediction of 10% growth for 2021 in early October). ANZ have now joined the other big 4 banks and late-coming analysts who have turned from market bears into bulls and revised up their previous gloomy 2021 predictions. ANZ now expect strong value growth across the major capital cities as highlighted in our ANZ residential property ladder below:
– Perth 12 per cent.
– Brisbane 9.5 per cent.
– Hobart 9.4 per cent.
– Sydney 8.8 per cent.
– Melbourne prices will lag, with 7.8 per cent growth.
Although Melbourne is last on the ANZ ladder, our belief is that Melbourne has a reasonable probability of surprising on the upside because it artificially fell further than any other capital city due to the extended lock downs primarily, and it was in a rapid growth phase prior to the pandemic.