In this week’s market update #18 of the Property Planner, Buyer and Professor Podcast, the team discuss “The early trajectory for 2021″, as Dave, Cate and Pete take you through:
- The current property climate. We may be heading towards autumn, but temperatures are going through the roof as the property market heats up. If you don’t want to get burnt on the property hunt, don’t forget to slip, slop, slap – get clear on your strategy, determine your price range and study the comparable sales.
- Property values for January are in the books. The national property market has started off the new year on a strong footing, as expected, following the seasonal slowdown. The trio take you through the January highlights.
- Beware the data lag. With the market surging forward at this pace, November’s sales won’t cut it anymore. The Property Buyer shares her tips on how recent your collated data needs to be and warns that this data may not be fool proof either.
- Regional areas and days (or hours) on the market. Because regional areas are less reliant on auctions, days on market tend to be shorter as a direct reflection of private sale pricing regimes. At the coal face, bullish offers are being made to quickly snap up properties. Remember, the better the quality the property, the faster it is likely to sell. If you’re targeting top-shelf properties, you need to be prepared for competition, and be prepared to make quick decisions.
- CBD apartments and expected immigration. The CBD apartment market continues to languish, partly due to the great lifestyle re-evaluation and flight to larger properties and also lack of international students. Mounting pressure to bring in international students and lower-level workers for our agricultural industries may open up boarders in mid to late 2021 – watch this space.
- New Zealand and macro prudential measures to cool the market. Kiwi house prices have taken flight and over the last 12 months, resulting in an average capital growth figure of 17.3%. The NZ Central Bank has slapped restrictions on investors and 60%+ LVR lending in a bid to put out the property fire. The trio explain the outlook for Australia and when our regulator is likely to pull the trigger on similar macro prudential measures although they note that unlike NZ, we haven’t really seen investor numbers represented in our market yet.
- JobKeeperand JobSeeker coming to an end. The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor share their predictions on the impact to the property market, when both JobKeeper and JobSeeker come to a close at the end of March.
- Interest rates won’t rise for 4 years. Governor Lowe has adjusted his expectations for the cash rate to stay at 0.1% from 3 years to 4 years. The Property Planner explains the motivations driving this monetary policy.
- Vaccine success in Israel. The global guinea pig for vaccines, Israel, has turned in a positive success story as more than 50% of their population has been vaccinated. Effective vaccines are critical to the success of macro markets and the economy, so far, the outlook is promising.
- And of course, our “gold nuggets”!
David Johnston- The Property Planner’s Golden nugget: Governor Lowe says rates need to stay the same for at least 3 to 4 years, maybe longer. He wants to see wages growth occur, they are growing at 1.4% annually and we now need to push the jobless rate down to 4. something to grow the economy. The US was at 3.5% prior to covid, they’re now at 6.7%. Interestingly we were at 5.1% and we’re at 6.6%, similar to the US.
Cate Bakos – The Property Buyer’s Golden nugget: I want to chat to anyone who is feeling a sense of FOMO, no matter what conditions you are navigating, do not panic buy and skip your due diligence. The effect of doing that could be enormous regret. Be prepared for the phone to ring or for the auction to be brought forward or the deal to be done quickly, but don’t do anything knee-jerk as a result of FOMO.