Darwin Property Market Under the Microscope – Will 2025 Mark the Return of Property Growth for Australia’s Most Affordable & Smallest Capital City? (Ep. 308)

Show Notes – Darwin Property Market in 2025

Darwin is back in the spotlight. In this episode, The Property Trio investigate the conditions behind Darwin’s sudden emergence as a front-runner in Australian property, thanks to a listener email highlighting investor interest, off-market buying and predictions of major capital growth.

Backed by data and real-world anecdotes, the Trio explore whether the Darwin property market in 2025 is truly entering a new growth phase or simply enjoying a short-term rally.

1. Listener Insight

Mike reads out a compelling email from a listener who noticed Darwin being touted as a top pick for capital growth in 2025. The listener, already invested in Darwin, shared:

• A shift from owner-occupier to investor-dominated sales.
• Buyer’s agents purchasing up to 20 properties a week.
• Most transactions occurring off-market.
• A possible 10–15% increase in values in Q1 2025, not yet visible in published data.

2. Early Market Performance & CoreLogic Data

Cate highlights new growth trends that support the listener’s observations:

• Darwin’s Property Market recorded 1.1% growth in April 2025, the highest monthly rate of all capital cities.
• Quarterly growth for Darwin is now 3.4%, ahead of Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane (each at 1.0%).
• Darwin has now logged two consecutive months of >1% growth (March and April), indicating strong upward momentum.

Source: CoreLogic

3. The Long Winter: A Decade of Stagnation

Dave puts this new growth in context:

• Darwin has underperformed since 2012, with housing values still recovering from past declines.
• Despite this, over the last five years, Darwin outperformed Melbourne in cumulative price growth.
• Historically, Darwin has experienced boom-bust cycles, previously reaching second-highest median house price nationally during the 1994–1999 and 2008–2014 periods.

Source: CoreLogic

4. Rental Yields & Affordability: Investor Magnet for Darwin Property

The team dig into why investors are circling Darwin’s Property Market:

• Darwin has the highest gross rental yield of any capital city at 6.6%, well above Hobart (4.4%) and Sydney (3.1%).
• Median dwelling price sits at $526,410, the most affordable of any capital.
• High yields are partially due to long-term price stagnation, which could position the city for a catch-up cycle.

Source: CoreLogic

Source: CoreLogic

5. Off-Market Activity & Buyer’s Agent Dominance

Cate expresses caution:

• Significant portions of Darwin stock are selling off-market to buyers’ agents.
• Artificial price inflation is a concern when investors and BAs dominate a small market.
• The rapid change in ownership type may distort organic demand and lead to volatility in Darwin’s property market.

6. Listings & Sales Activity: Tight Market Conditions

Dave highlights the supply squeeze in Darwin’s Property Market:

• New listings up 18.5% in March 2025 vs. 2024.
• Total listings still down 28.3% year-on-year.
• Days on market for Darwin dwellings is 65 days, down from 70 in 2024, but still higher than the national capital city average of 35 days.
• Sales volumes in Darwin have increased 33.4% year-on-year (March 2025).

Source: SQM Research

Source: CoreLogic

Source: CoreLogic

7. Population & Labour Market Challenges Affecting the Darwin Property Market

Darwin remains small in scale:

• Population: 152,489, making it the 17th largest city in Australia.
• Population growth (0.9% in 2023–2024) is the second-lowest among capital cities.
• Unemployment in Darwin is currently at 3.3%, slightly better than the national average (4.1%), but employment growth has dipped below 0%.

Source: ABS

Source: ABS

Source: ABS, Department of Treasury and Finance

Source: ABS

8. Government Spending & Strategic Infrastructure Projects

Dave uncovers the NT’s fiscal advantage:

• NT received the highest per capita federal funding in the 2025–26 budget (ratio of 0.93, compared to NSW at 0.22).
• Major infrastructure investments include:
  • Darwin Ship Lift ($215M)
  • Charles Darwin University campus ($97M)
  • Stuart Highway upgrades
  • Defence-related projects

This spend is tied to Darwin’s strategic position in national defence and its proximity to Asia-Pacific shipping routes.

9. Sector Risks: Economic Concentration & FIFO Employment

Cate and Dave reflect on Simon Pressley’s concerns on Darwin’s property market:

• 42% of Darwin’s workforce is in the public sector.
• 30% of the NT’s revenue is tied to mining.
• Homeownership is lower than average (65% vs. 74% nationally), and many residents are FIFO or on temporary contracts.

Source: ABS

10. Final Thoughts: Darwin Property – A Market with Momentum & Risk

The Trio summarise key themes shaping the Darwin housing market forecast:

• Pros: High yields, government investment, tight supply, affordability and rising prices.
• Risks: Small, volatile economy with limited diversity and past underperformance.

They agree: Darwin may be poised for a run, but it remains a market for experienced investors with a higher risk appetite.