Welcome to the Property Planner’s Monthly Market Update, your comprehensive resource for the latest insights and trends in the real estate and economic landscape!
Stay informed and ahead of the curve with our expert analysis, helping you make well-informed decisions in the ever-evolving property market.
Shock Decision: RBA Holds Rates Steady Despite Market Expectations
In an unexpected move, the Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to hold the cash rate at 3.85%.
The decision was made despite widespread market expectations of a rate cut, with financial markets pricing in a 97% probability of a reduction today.
At today’s meeting, the RBA Board voted 6 to 3 in favour of keeping rates unchanged.
This marks the first time the Board has provided a breakdown of the votes, highlighting the differing views among members and just how closely contested the decision was.
Inflation has been moderating, as the RBA noted, “inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022,” and underlying inflation is currently within the target range of 2-3%,
Key comments from the RBA explaining the decision were:
- The Board continues to judge that the risks to inflation have become more balanced and the labour market remains strong.
- Nevertheless it remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and supply.
- The Board judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5 per cent on a sustainable basis.
Price Growth Across All Capitals
Every capital city recorded solid price growth in June, bar Hobart, with most seeing an acceleration in their rate of growth compared to May.
This suggests that the market may be heating up in response to the second interest rate cut delivered by the RBA, with the markets betting that a third rate reduction at the start of July is a monty.
After trailing regionals for much of the past year, the combined capitals edged ahead in June (+0.6% vs +0.5%).
However, over the last three months, regionals still held a slight lead (+1.6% vs +1.4%).
This suggests the gap is closing, and the tide may be turning back in favour of the capitals as affordability pressures and investor interest shift focus.
Recovery Underway in Melbourne’s Property Market
With five months of steady gains and counting, Melbourne’s recovery is no longer a theory, it’s happening.
Since February 2025, values have been on the rise every month:
🌱 Feb: +0.4%
🌱 Mar: +0.5%
🌱 Apr: +0.2%
🌱 May: +0.4%
🌱 June: +0.5%
And with further interest rate cuts expected from the RBA in July and later in the year, buyer and investor confidence is set to strengthen even further, adding fuel to the recovery as we head into the second half of the year.
Click here for more detailed insights into the data behind Melbourne’s market recovery.
Source: Cotality
Darwin’s Property Market Hits a Major Milestone
According to Cotality, Darwin was the top-performing property market in June, notching up a 1.5% rise in values, leaving Canberra in second place at 0.9%.
And here’s the big news…
Darwin’s property values have finally returned to their previous peak in 2014!
After more than a decade-long slump, prices are now back to where they were in May 2014.
That’s 11 years of waiting for Darwinite homeowners and investors, and the moment has finally arrived.
With 4.3% growth over the quarter, Darwin prices are taking off and we expect that there is a long way to go yet.
Click here for more insights on Darwin.
Source: Cotality (formerly CoreLogic)
Perth’s Property Market Keeps Climbing
Momentum continues to ramp up in the west, with Perth recording +0.8% price growth in June
This is the strongest monthly rise so far in 2025, according to Cotality, as Perth starts to get a second wind after the recent rate reductions, with expectations of more to come.
Recent Monthly Growth:
🔹 March: +0.2%
🔹 April: +0.4%
🔹 May: +0.7%
🔹 June: +0.8%
Source: Cotality (formerly CoreLogic)
Canberra Property Bounces Back
After a slow start to 2025, Canberra’s property market is finally showing signs of life, posting a solid +0.9% growth in June, according to Cotality.
That’s enough to land the capital second spot on the national leaderboard, trailing only Darwin for the month.
With the May election now behind us, and a Labor government voted in with a landslide victory, it seems buyer confidence is returning and Canberra’s market is shaking off its early-year sluggishness.
We suggested this was a likely outcome and expect the Canberra property market to continue this momentum across the year and into 2026.
Source: Cotality (formerly CoreLogic)
Rental Growth Continues to Ease Across Australia
Rental growth has moderated further across most of the country, with the national rental index rising by just 1.3% over the June quarter — the softest second-quarter result since 2020, when rents fell by 1.7%.
Canberra recorded the smallest increase among the capital cities, with rents edging up 0.3% over the quarter.
Melbourne and Adelaide followed, each posting a 0.7% rise.
Darwin saw the strongest growth, with rents up 2.9%, followed by Brisbane (2.0%) and Sydney (1.5%).
The slowdown is even more apparent in annual figures:
National rental growth has eased from a peak of 9.7% (12 months to November 2021) and held above 8% between July 2021 and May 2024.
Over the 2023–24 financial year, the rental index rose by 3.4% — the smallest annual increase since the 12 months ending February 2021.
Source: Cotality (formerly CoreLogic)
Listings Remain Subdued Across Most Markets
New listing activity remained soft across both capital cities and regional areas in the four weeks to June 29, with every region recording fewer new listings compared to the same period last year.
Total stock on market also declined in most areas. The only exceptions were:
- Adelaide, with a 2.3% increase
- Perth, up 6.8%
- Canberra, up slightly by 0.8%
Nationally, total listings were 5.8% lower than a year ago and 16.7% below the previous five-year average for this time of year.
Source: Cotality (formerly CoreLogic)
Home Buyer Sentiment
Time to Buy a Dwelling Index
The index fell to 88.5 in July, down from 93.3 in June, marking a 5.1% decline. While this follows a recent cycle high, buyer sentiment remains firmly in pessimistic territory and well below the long-term average of 120.
Sentiment was relatively more stable in Victoria, where the index sits closer to neutral at 97.
In contrast, confidence dropped sharply in Queensland (69) and Western Australia (74).
In both states, the RBA’s July decision appears to have been viewed more hawkishly, with a small majority of consumers now expecting interest rates to rise rather than fall over the coming year.
House Price Expectations Index
House price expectations have softened slightly, with the index falling 2.2% to 162.8 in July, down from 166.5 in June.
Despite the dip, this follows a twelve-year high reached in June, so expectations remain elevated overall.
Around 75% of consumers still anticipate further price growth over the next 12 months.
The pullback was more pronounced in Queensland and Western Australia, aligning with the decline in buyer sentiment and reinforcing the impact of rate outlooks in these markets.
Inflation Drops Across the Board
The latest inflation figures are in from the ABS, and they bring good news for those hoping for a rate cut, but not so great news for the economy.
🔹 The monthly CPI indicator rose just 𝟮.𝟭% in the 12 months to May, 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝟮.𝟰% in April, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀.
🔹 The trimmed mean inflation, the 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗮’𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗹𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, has fallen to 𝗮 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲-𝗮𝗻𝗱-𝗮-𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗳-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗼𝗳 𝟮.𝟰% in May 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝟮.𝟴% in April.
Low inflation is often a sign of weak economic demand, prompting rate cuts to stimulate spending, but if growth continues to falter, it could lead to stagflation, recession or even depression.
The RBA aims to keep inflation between 2-3%, with an ideal target of 2.5% to support stable economic growth.
Reach Out to Us
If you would like to discuss your next steps, property plans, and mortgage strategy, get in touch with us today. Our team of experts is here to guide you through the complexities of the market and help you achieve your property goals.
