Formerly the “Property Planner, Buyer and Professor” podcast
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Every Capital City in Positive Territory
The October surge was broad and powerful, with every capital city recording positive momentum.
Perth led the charge with a standout 1.9%, Brisbane followed close behind at 1.8%, while Darwin (1.6%) and Adelaide (1.4%) kept the growth wave rolling.
Even Hobart, quiet since May, edged back into the green with a 0.3 percent lift, making this one of the most uniformly positive months we have seen across the capitals in some time.
Source: Cotality
National Growth Accelerates Sharply
Fresh data from Cotality shows Australia’s housing market picking up speed, with home values rising 1.1 percent in October, the fastest monthly gain since June 2023.
When you annualise that momentum, it points to growth tracking at more than 13 percent per year, putting Australia firmly back into double digit territory.
Source: Cotality
Four Capital Cities Record Biggest Jump in 2025
Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne each logged their highest monthly gain for 2025 in October.
Given Sydney and Melbourne make up roughly 60 percent of the nation’s residential asset base, any lift in these markets sends a strong ripple through the national numbers.
Source: Cotality
Investor Activity Heating Up
Investors now make up 38 percent of new mortgage lending, well above the long-term average of roughly 33 percent.
New investor loans rose 0.77 percent in September, the strongest monthly jump since June 2015.
APRA has flagged that if this acceleration continues, it may step in with macroprudential tools.
Options on the table include potential limits on high debt to income lending and caps on investor or interest only loans.
Source: Cotality/ABS
What’s Behind the Rise
Across each capital, the middle and lower quartiles are doing the heavy lifting while the prestige end takes a breather.
Are first home buyers entering with the 5 percent deposit guarantee, along with investors trying to beat them to the punch, creating this outsized boost in the lower and middle tiers?
Source: Cotality
Rents are Still on the Rise
Darwin and Hobart are leading rental growth and unit rents are increasing faster than house rents across most cities, as tenants likely chase more affordable options in a market where vacancies are at historic lows.
Pressure on rental yields is a hallmark of rising capital values, and the gross rental yields chart illustrates this well.
Source: Cotality
Vacancies Remain Painfully Tight
Vacancy rates are scraping the floor, from 0.4 percent in Hobart to 1.8 percent in Melbourne.
This signals intense rental competition and a nationwide supply shortage that is yet to ease.
Source: SQM Research
Sales Numbers Jump, While Total Listings Dive Revealing the Real Supply Story
New listings are close to average levels, but total listings remain significantly depleted:
• 14.3 percent down nationally compared to last year
• 18.3 percent below the five-year average
It’s easy to see why values are surging in some markets where the supply and demand imbalance has struck.
Source: Cotality
Consumer Sentiment Surprises
Australians are reporting a stronger outlook for economic conditions, with several measures in the indices exhibiting a strong increase in sentiment.
Meanwhile, consumers remain strongly upbeat about where house prices are headed.
The House Price Expectations Index inched up by 0.3 percent in November to 172.4, marking a new cycle high and surpassing October’s 15-year peak.
Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute
Resources
The Property Planner’s Monthly Market Update
And if you’ve enjoyed this show, take a listen to these eps:
- Ep. 12: Property Cycle Management – why now is always the best time to buy if it suits your personal economy and you have a long-term property plan
- Ep. 158: How interest rate cycles have impacted the property market since 1990 when the RBA first started targeting the cash rate and some predictions on what will happen this time
- Ep. 164: Analysing regional locations – What investment principles can be gleaned from the highest performing regions in each state? Comparing capital city vs regional performance from 2003 – before and after covid
- Ep. 169: Houses vs units – Capital growth performance in capital cities and regions over the last 20 years and which locations have units outperformed houses and why?
- Ep. 313: The History of Property Prices After Rate Cuts – 40 Years of Data, Houses vs Units, Capitals vs Regions & Predictions
